Pollster · Works for one party

The Tarrance Group

Also published as Tarrance Group.

Research draft

Polls since 2024: 2
Latest poll ended: July 30, 2026
Record vs. results, relative: R+1.5

Polls from the VoteHub polling API, used under CC BY 4.0. Each result links to the pollster's or sponsor's own release. Imported once a day; a poll VoteHub later changes keeps its earlier version on record here.

§1About

Drafted by AI from the public sources cited. Each sentence links to its source.

The Tarrance Group is a research and polling firm that its website says Lance Tarrance founded in Houston, Texas in 1977, with headquarters now in Alexandria, Virginia.¹ Its website calls it a trusted name in Republican research and polling, says it has helped elect more than 110 Republican governors, U.S. senators and members of Congress, and also mentions issue advocacy and corporate research.^1,2 The website names B.J. Martino as president and chief executive, with Dave Sackett and Brian Tringali as partners, and a profile on the American Association of Political Consultants site describes Ed Goeas as a founding partner who spent about thirty-five years as president and chief executive.^1,2,3

Kind: Works for one party^2,4
Founded: 1977¹

§2Who it works with

Why this matters: Owners, news partners and the firms behind a poll's interviews shape what gets asked, how, and what gets published.

Polls regularly for

Georgetown Institute of Politics and Public Service (2019–now). Georgetown's institute says it became the home of the Battleground Poll in early 2019, released its first edition that April, added a Civility Poll component, and released a November 2024 edition fielded November 12 to 18 among 800 likely voters, funded by American Policy Ventures.^5,6

Polls jointly with

Lake Research Partners. Georgetown's Institute of Politics and Public Service says the Battleground Poll, which it describes as measuring opinion among registered voters for nearly thirty years, is produced by Republican strategist Ed Goeas of The Tarrance Group and Democratic strategist Celinda Lake of Lake Research Partners.^5,6

Founded by

Lance Tarrance (1977). The firm's who-we-are page says Lance Tarrance founded it in Houston in 1977.¹

Led by

B.J. Martino (2022–now). A July 2022 news item on the firm's site says its board named B.J. Martino president and chief executive, and its who-we-are page lists him in that role.^1,2

Published with

Names its polls have been published under, alongside other pollsters or news outlets.

Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group: Lake Research Partners · 1 poll listed
Bendixen & Amandi International/Tarrance Group: Bendixen & Amandi International
Pioneer Polling/Tarrance Group: Pioneer Polling

Who paid for its polls

Sponsors named on its polls, most polls first⁷. A party-aligned flag is VoteHub's, per poll.
Sponsor	Polls	Between	Flagged party-aligned
Democracy Defense Foundation	1	July 30, 2026	No
Georgetown Institute of Politics and Public Service	1	November 18, 2024	No

§3Whom it works for

Why this matters: A firm that also works for one party's campaigns can still publish accurate polls, but readers deserve to know.

Works for Republican candidates or groups. The firm's own website says it has helped elect more than 110 Republican governors, U.S. senators and members of Congress and calls it a name in Republican research and polling, and Georgetown's description of the Battleground Poll, a standing partnership, identifies its Tarrance pollster as the Republican side. This rests on the firm's own description, supported by the standing partner's.^1,2,5

John Kasich. The American Association of Political Consultants profile of Ed Goeas credits him with roles in Governor John Kasich's campaigns.³
Scott Walker. The American Association of Political Consultants profile of Ed Goeas credits him with roles in Governor Scott Walker's campaigns.³
Mary Fallin. The American Association of Political Consultants profile of Ed Goeas credits him with roles in Governor Mary Fallin's campaigns.³
John Boozman. The American Association of Political Consultants profile of Ed Goeas credits him with roles in Senator John Boozman's campaigns.³
Joni Ernst. The American Association of Political Consultants profile of Ed Goeas credits him with roles in Senator Joni Ernst's campaigns.³
James Lankford. The American Association of Political Consultants profile of Ed Goeas credits him with roles in Senator James Lankford's campaigns.³
Thad Cochran. The American Association of Political Consultants profile of Ed Goeas credits him with roles in Senator Thad Cochran's campaigns.³

Of its 2 polls listed since the 2024 election, VoteHub flags 0 as paid for by a Democratic-aligned sponsor and 0 by a Republican-aligned sponsor⁷.

Federal campaigns and committees that paid it

From 2023 through 2026, 50 federal committees reported paying The Tarrance Group $6,486,271 for polling, surveys or research^8,9,10,11. By the party each committee reports to the FEC: 0 Democratic, 31 Republican, and 19 none (most PACs and super PACs report none).

The largest payers, by amount paid for polling, surveys or research. Only federal committees report to the FEC; state and local campaigns, work paid through another consultant, and polling billed as consulting are not here. Matched by the payee name on the filing: TARRANCE GROUP; THE TARRANCE GROUP; THE TARRANCE GROUP INC; THE TARRANCE GROUP INC.; ….
Committee	Kind	Party it reports	Paid for polling	Between
NRCC	Party committee	Republican	$1,371,772	April 19, 2023 – September 25, 2026
SLF PAC	Super PAC	None reported	$794,083	February 9, 2023 – February 26, 2026
NRSC	Party committee	Republican	$787,910	November 2, 2023 – September 25, 2026
PRESERVE AMERICA PAC	Super PAC	None reported	$314,844	May 23, 2024 – September 12, 2024
HOVDE FOR WISCONSIN	Senate campaign	Republican	$300,912	March 6, 2024 – November 6, 2024
CONSERVATIVES FOR AMERICAN EXCELLENCE INC.	Super PAC	None reported	$252,372	April 29, 2024 – August 4, 2026
AMERICAN MISSION	Super PAC	None reported	$217,132	January 21, 2026 – July 9, 2026
AMERICAN HORIZON PAC	PAC	Republican	$209,173	April 25, 2024 – October 28, 2024
HUIZENGA FOR CONGRESS	House campaign	Republican	$162,503	February 7, 2024 – May 21, 2026
AMERICA PAC	Super PAC	None reported	$161,716	August 26, 2024 – October 22, 2024
JOHN JAMES FOR CONGRESS, INC.	House campaign	Republican	$129,439	April 30, 2024 – October 25, 2024
ROGERS FOR SENATE	Senate campaign	Republican	$125,837	July 11, 2024 – November 4, 2024

§4Record against results

Why this matters: The one test that doesn't depend on other polls: how close a firm's final polls came to what voters did.

From FiveThirtyEight's final public data^12,13: general-election polls between a Democrat and a Republican in the last three weeks before each election, compared with the certified result. FiveThirtyEight rated each name polls were published under separately. Across all 8,957 such polls, the average miss was D+0.7, so the relative figure takes out the misses every pollster shared that year.

Error is the poll's D−R margin minus the result's; D+ means it showed Democrats doing better than they did.
Published as	Polls	Elections	Average miss	Relative to other polls	Typical size of miss	538's last rating
Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group	36	2000–2012	R+1.5	R+1.5	3.5 pts	2.5 of 3
Tarrance Group	26	1998–2020	R+2.5	R+4.0	4.5 pts	1.6 of 3 · 1% partisan work
Pioneer Polling/Tarrance Group	0	—	—	—	—	2.0 of 3

ABC News closed FiveThirtyEight in March 2025; its data stops at the 2022 elections. 2026 results will be added once states certify them.

§5Its polls

The 2 polls of its we list, newest first.
In the field	Question	Result	With	Paid for by	Sample
July 27–July 30, 2026	Governor · 2026 Arizona	Katie Hobbs 52 · Andy Biggs 48		Democracy Defense Foundation	600 LV
November 12–November 18, 2024	Favorability · JD Vance	Unfavorable 46.7 · Favorable 41.8	Lake Research Partners	Georgetown Institute of Politics and Public Service	800 LV

§6What we looked for and didn't find

The clients page lists categories (governors, senators, members of Congress) but names no individual clients; the named campaigns come from a professional association profile of Ed Goeas, not from the firm.
No start date for the Battleground Poll partnership with Lake Research Partners was found beyond Georgetown's description of nearly thirty years, and no edition after November 2024 was seen.
The firm's site footer links to Advocus Partners, whose site lists Tarrance among its partners by logo only; no ownership relationship was established.
The Democracy Defense Foundation release for an Arizona poll returned HTTP 403, so that poll's sponsorship was not read.
Searches found no AAPOR statement, court ruling, regulator action, aggregator statement about excluding or reweighting its polls, or retraction; criticism of individual polls found in search is listed under pointers.