Pollster · Works for one party

Lake Research Partners

Research draft

Polls since 2024: 9
Latest poll ended: October 30, 2026
Record vs. results, relative: R+1.5

Polls from the VoteHub polling API, used under CC BY 4.0. Each result links to the pollster's or sponsor's own release. Imported once a day; a poll VoteHub later changes keeps its earlier version on record here.

§1About

Drafted by AI from the public sources cited. Each sentence links to its source.

Lake Research Partners is a public opinion and political strategy research firm based in Washington, D.C., with an office in Berkeley, California, according to its website.¹ Its website says Celinda Lake founded it in 1995, and its team page lists her as president alongside partners Alysia Snell, Daniel Gotoff, David Mermin and Joshua Ulibarri.^1,2

Kind: Works for one party¹
Founded: 1995¹

§2Who it works with

Why this matters: Owners, news partners and the firms behind a poll's interviews shape what gets asked, how, and what gets published.

Polls regularly for

Georgetown Institute of Politics and Public Service (2019–now). Georgetown's Institute of Politics and Public Service says it became the home of the Battleground Poll in early 2019 and lists editions through November 2024.³

Polls jointly with

The Tarrance Group. Georgetown's Battleground Poll page says Celinda Lake of Lake Research Partners and Ed Goeas of The Tarrance Group lead the bipartisan poll, which it says has measured opinion for nearly thirty years.³

Founded by

Celinda Lake (1995). Lake's website says Celinda Lake founded the firm in 1995.¹

Led by

Celinda Lake. Lake's team page lists Celinda Lake as president.²

Published with

Names its polls have been published under, alongside other pollsters or news outlets.

Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group: The Tarrance Group · 1 poll listed

Who paid for its polls

Sponsors named on its polls, most polls first⁴. A party-aligned flag is VoteHub's, per poll.
Sponsor	Polls	Between	Flagged party-aligned
Ballot Initiative Strategy Center	3	September 30, 2026 – October 30, 2026	No
House Majority PAC	3	June 23, 2026 – October 4, 2026	Democratic-aligned sponsor (3)
FairVote	1	May 11, 2026	No
Free Speech For People	1	March 30, 2026	Democratic-aligned sponsor (1)
Georgetown Institute of Politics and Public Service	1	November 18, 2024	No

§3Whom it works for

Why this matters: A firm that also works for one party's campaigns can still publish accurate polls, but readers deserve to know.

Works for Democratic candidates or groups. Lake's website calls it a progressive Democratic research firm that works only for pro-choice candidates and labor-friendly clients, and Georgetown's Battleground Poll page identifies Celinda Lake as the poll's Democratic strategist; this rests on the firm's own description and a standing partner's description.^1,3

Joe Biden. Lake's client page lists Joe Biden, with his titles as Delaware senator, vice president and president.⁵
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Lake's client page lists Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York's 14th district.⁵

Of its 9 polls listed since the 2024 election, VoteHub flags 4 as paid for by a Democratic-aligned sponsor and 0 by a Republican-aligned sponsor⁴.

Federal campaigns and committees that paid it

From 2023 through 2026, 59 federal committees reported paying Lake Research Partners $4,195,288 for polling, surveys or research^6,7,8,9. By the party each committee reports to the FEC: 40 Democratic, 0 Republican, and 19 none (most PACs and super PACs report none).

The largest payers, by amount paid for polling, surveys or research. Only federal committees report to the FEC; state and local campaigns, work paid through another consultant, and polling billed as consulting are not here. Matched by the payee name on the filing: LAKE RESEARCH PARTNERS; LAKE RESEARCH PARTNERS INC; LAKE RESEARCH PARTNERS INC.; LAKE RESEARCH PARTNERS, INC; ….
Committee	Kind	Party it reports	Paid for polling	Between
DCCC	Party committee	Democratic	$744,251	February 23, 2024 – August 14, 2026
MARY PELTOLA FOR ALASKA	House campaign	Democratic	$338,075	February 10, 2023 – December 13, 2024
ABDUL FOR U.S. SENATE	Senate campaign	Democratic	$251,705	June 3, 2025 – June 1, 2026
LICCARDO FOR CONGRESS	House campaign	Democratic	$188,547	December 29, 2023 – October 9, 2024
IN UNION USA	Super PAC	None reported	$169,381	October 7, 2024 – January 13, 2025
DR. RAUL RUIZ FOR CONGRESS	House campaign	Democratic	$167,853	December 22, 2023 – February 19, 2026
CHRIS DELUZIO FOR CONGRESS	House campaign	Democratic	$148,723	May 14, 2023 – October 7, 2024
FORWARD MAJORITY ACTION	Super PAC	None reported	$122,488	June 28, 2024 – September 16, 2024
ALEXANDRIA OCASIO-CORTEZ FOR CONGRESS	House campaign	Democratic	$109,969	May 6, 2024 – February 26, 2026
COHEN FOR CONGRESS	House campaign	Democratic	$97,861	January 23, 2026 – March 27, 2026
ADRIANO ESPAILLAT FOR CONGRESS	House campaign	Democratic	$91,849	May 1, 2026 – June 15, 2026
MICHELLE VALLEJO FOR CONGRESS	House campaign	Democratic	$91,080	July 17, 2024 – October 10, 2024

§4Record against results

Why this matters: The one test that doesn't depend on other polls: how close a firm's final polls came to what voters did.

From FiveThirtyEight's final public data^10,11: general-election polls between a Democrat and a Republican in the last three weeks before each election, compared with the certified result. FiveThirtyEight rated each name polls were published under separately. Across all 8,957 such polls, the average miss was D+0.7, so the relative figure takes out the misses every pollster shared that year.

Error is the poll's D−R margin minus the result's; D+ means it showed Democrats doing better than they did.
Published as	Polls	Elections	Average miss	Relative to other polls	Typical size of miss	538's last rating
Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group	36	2000–2012	R+1.5	R+1.5	3.5 pts	2.5 of 3
Lake Research Partners	12	2006–2020	D+2.2	D+1.5	4.4 pts	1.2 of 3 · 1% partisan work

ABC News closed FiveThirtyEight in March 2025; its data stops at the 2022 elections. 2026 results will be added once states certify them.

§5Its polls

The 9 polls of its we list, newest first.
In the field	Question	Result	With	Paid for by	Sample
September 16–October 30, 2026	Governor · 2026 Colorado	Phil Weiser 51 · Victor Marx 36		Ballot Initiative Strategy Center	600 RV
September 30–October 4, 2026	U.S. House · 2026 KY-06	Zach Dembo 48 · Ralph Alvarado 45		House Majority PACDemocratic-aligned sponsor	400 LV
September 30–October 4, 2026	U.S. House · 2026 KY-06	Zach Dembo 46 · Ralph Alvarado 40 · Jay Bowman 3 · Pete Lynch 1		House Majority PACDemocratic-aligned sponsor	400 LV
September 16–September 30, 2026	U.S. Senate · 2026 Colorado	John Hickenlooper 52 · Mark Baisley 38		Ballot Initiative Strategy Center	600 RV
September 16–September 30, 2026	Governor · 2026 Arizona	Katie Hobbs 56 · Andy Biggs 33		Ballot Initiative Strategy Center	600 RV
June 18–June 23, 2026	U.S. House · 2026 PA-08	Paige Cognetti 47 · Rob Bresnahan 45		House Majority PACDemocratic-aligned sponsor	400 LV
May 6–May 11, 2026	Presidential primary · 2028 Democratic	Kamala Harris 25 · Gavin Newsom 17 · Pete Buttigieg 15 · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 9 · Mark Kelly 8 · Josh Shapiro 6 · 7 more		FairVote	800 LV
March 26–March 30, 2026	Job approval · Donald Trump	Disapprove 57 · Approve 38		Free Speech For PeopleDemocratic-aligned sponsor	800 LV
November 12–November 18, 2024	Favorability · JD Vance	Unfavorable 46.7 · Favorable 41.8	The Tarrance Group	Georgetown Institute of Politics and Public Service	800 LV

§6What we looked for and didn't find

No ownership breakdown was found; the team page lists partners without saying who owns the firm.
No fieldwork or panel vendors were named on the pages read.
No standing news partner was found; sponsors on its 2026 public toplines, such as Ballot Initiative Strategy Center, FairVote and Free Speech For People, were not checked as standing relationships.
The Battleground Poll page lists editions through November 2024; no 2025 or 2026 edition was found, so whether the series continues was not confirmed.