Pollster · Nonprofit

NORC at the University of Chicago

AAPOR Transparency Initiative since May 4, 20152Research draft
Polls since 2024
30
Latest poll ended
June 17, 2026

Polls from the VoteHub polling API, used under CC BY 4.0. Each result links to the pollster's or sponsor's own release. Imported once a day; a poll VoteHub later changes keeps its earlier version on record here.

§1About

Drafted by AI from the public sources cited. Each sentence links to its source.

NORC at the University of Chicago describes itself as an objective, nonpartisan research organization with more than 80 years of work in research and data science.3 A history by Norman Bradburn posted on NORC's website says Harry Field founded it in 1941 and incorporated it in Colorado as a nonprofit, and that it moved to Chicago in 1947 as a separate nonprofit corporation affiliated with the University of Chicago, with the university appointing a majority of its trustees.4 NORC says Dan Gaylin has been its president and chief executive since 2013.5,6 AP-NORC releases say its polls are conducted online and by telephone with members of the AmeriSpeak Panel, which they call NORC's probability-based panel.7

Kind
Nonprofit4
Founded
19414

§2Who it works with

Why this matters: Owners, news partners and the firms behind a poll's interviews shape what gets asked, how, and what gets published.

News partners

  • The Associated Press (2011–now). NORC says it and The Associated Press established the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research in 2011; the Center's site says it pairs NORC's research with AP's journalism.8,9

Founded by

  • Harry Field (1941). The Bradburn history on NORC's website says Harry Field founded the National Opinion Research Center in 1941.4

Led by

  • Dan Gaylin (2013–now). NORC announced Dan Gaylin as president and chief executive in November 2013 and still named him in that role in January 2026.5,6

Published with

Names its polls have been published under, alongside other pollsters or news outlets.

§3Whom it works for

Why this matters: A firm that also works for one party's campaigns can still publish accurate polls, but readers deserve to know.

Says it does no work for parties or candidates. NORC's website calls it an objective, nonpartisan research organization; the pages read do not say whether it accepts work from candidates or parties.3,9

Of its 30 polls listed since the 2024 election, VoteHub flags 0 as paid for by a Democratic-aligned sponsor and 0 by a Republican-aligned sponsor10.

§4How its numbers compare with other polls

Why this matters: A firm whose polls run steadily to one side of everyone else's is worth reading alongside others.

Each of its polls since the 2024 election is compared with other pollsters' polls of the same question whose field period ended within 14 days, each other pollster counted once10. The figure is the average gap, with a 95% margin. This compares it with other polls, not with the truth: the others can be the ones that are off.

Net approval: Donald Trump
−10.1 points (±2.2) across 16 polls, against other polls of the same question.
Net favorability: JD Vance
−9.3 points (±2.6) across 7 polls, against other polls of the same question.
Net favorability: Donald Trump
−9.1 points (±2.9) across 6 polls, against other polls of the same question.

D+ means its polls showed Democrats doing better than other polls did; R+, Republicans. A figure from fewer than 5 polls isn't shown.

§5Record against results

Why this matters: The one test that doesn't depend on other polls: how close a firm's final polls came to what voters did.

From FiveThirtyEight's final public data11,12: general-election polls between a Democrat and a Republican in the last three weeks before each election, compared with the certified result. FiveThirtyEight rated each name polls were published under separately. Across all 8,957 such polls, the average miss was D+0.7, so the relative figure takes out the misses every pollster shared that year.

Error is the poll's D−R margin minus the result's; D+ means it showed Democrats doing better than they did.
Published asPollsElectionsAverage missRelative to other pollsTypical size of miss538's last rating
AP-NORC0————2.0 of 3

ABC News closed FiveThirtyEight in March 2025; its data stops at the 2022 elections. 2026 results will be added once states certify them.

§6Its polls

The 42 polls of its we list, newest first.
In the fieldQuestionResultWithPaid for bySample
June 11–June 17, 2026Job approval · Donald TrumpDisapprove 62 · Approve 37The Associated Press3,040 A
May 14–May 18, 2026Job approval · Donald TrumpDisapprove 62 · Approve 37The Associated Press1,117 A
April 16–April 20, 2026Favorability · JD VanceUnfavorable 53 · Favorable 31The Associated Press2,596 A
April 16–April 20, 2026Favorability · Donald TrumpUnfavorable 61 · Favorable 33The Associated Press2,596 A
April 16–April 20, 2026Job approval · Donald TrumpDisapprove 67 · Approve 33The Associated Press2,596 A
March 20–March 23, 2026Job approval · Donald TrumpDisapprove 60 · Approve 38The Associated Press1,150 A
February 5–February 8, 2026Job approval · Donald TrumpDisapprove 62 · Approve 36The Associated Press1,156 A
February 5–February 8, 2026Favorability · JD VanceUnfavorable 49 · Favorable 32The Associated Press1,156 A
February 5–February 8, 2026Favorability · Donald TrumpUnfavorable 61 · Favorable 34The Associated Press1,156 A
January 8–January 11, 2026Job approval · Donald TrumpDisapprove 59 · Approve 40The Associated Press1,203 A
December 4–December 8, 2025Job approval · Donald TrumpDisapprove 61 · Approve 36The Associated Press1,146 A
November 6–November 10, 2025Job approval · Donald TrumpDisapprove 62 · Approve 36The Associated Press1,143 A
October 9–October 13, 2025Favorability · Donald TrumpUnfavorable 56 · Favorable 39The Associated Press1,289 A
October 9–October 13, 2025Favorability · JD VanceUnfavorable 48 · Favorable 34The Associated Press1,289 A
October 9–October 13, 2025Job approval · Donald TrumpDisapprove 61 · Approve 37The Associated Press1,289 A
September 11–September 15, 2025Job approval · Donald TrumpDisapprove 55 · Approve 41The Associated Press1,183 A
September 11–September 15, 2025Favorability · Donald TrumpUnfavorable 54 · Favorable 41The Associated Press1,183 A
September 11–September 15, 2025Favorability · JD VanceUnfavorable 46 · Favorable 32The Associated Press1,183 A
August 21–August 25, 2025Job approval · Donald TrumpDisapprove 53 · Approve 45The Associated Press1,182 A
July 10–July 14, 2025Job approval · Donald TrumpDisapprove 58 · Approve 40The Associated Press1,437 A
June 5–June 9, 2025Job approval · Donald TrumpDisapprove 60 · Approve 39The Associated Press1,158 A
May 1–May 5, 2025Job approval · Donald TrumpDisapprove 57 · Approve 41The Associated Press1,175 A
April 17–April 21, 2025Favorability · JD VanceUnfavorable 46 · Favorable 33The Associated Press1,260 A
April 17–April 21, 2025Favorability · Donald TrumpUnfavorable 57 · Favorable 39The Associated Press1,260 A
April 17–April 21, 2025Job approval · Donald TrumpDisapprove 59 · Approve 39The Associated Press1,260 A
March 20–March 24, 2025Job approval · Donald TrumpDisapprove 56 · Approve 42The Associated Press1,229 A
March 20–March 24, 2025Favorability · Donald TrumpUnfavorable 54 · Favorable 42The Associated Press1,229 A
January 9–January 13, 2025Favorability · JD VanceUnfavorable 47 · Favorable 32The Associated Press1,147 A
December 5–December 9, 2024Favorability · JD VanceUnfavorable 48 · Favorable 32The Associated Press1,251 A
December 5–December 9, 2024Job approval · CongressDisapprove 80 · Approve 17The Associated Press1,251 A
October 11–October 14, 2024Favorability · JD VanceUnfavorable 48 · Favorable 33The Associated Press957 RV
October 11–October 14, 2024Favorability · JD VanceUnfavorable 48 · Favorable 32The Associated Press1,072 A
September 12–September 16, 2024Favorability · JD VanceUnfavorable 57 · Favorable 27The Associated Press1,771 RV
September 12–September 16, 2024Favorability · JD VanceUnfavorable 49 · Favorable 26The Associated Press2,028 A
August 8–August 12, 2024Favorability · JD VanceUnfavorable 44 · Favorable 27The Associated Press1,164 A
July 25–July 29, 2024Favorability · JD VanceUnfavorable 40 · Favorable 27The Associated Press1,143 A
July 11–July 15, 2024Favorability · JD VanceUnfavorable 22 · Favorable 17The Associated Press1,253 A
January 26–January 30, 2023Job approval · CongressDisapprove 79 · Approve 19The Associated Press1,068 A
October 6–October 10, 2022Job approval · CongressDisapprove 78 · Approve 21The Associated Press1,121 A
January 28–February 1, 2021Job approval · CongressDisapprove 63 · Approve 36The Associated Press1,055 A
February 13–February 16, 2020Job approval · CongressDisapprove 79 · Approve 56 · Approve 20The Associated Press1,074 A
October 24–October 28, 2019Job approval · CongressDisapprove 71 · Approve 27The Associated Press1,075 A

§7What we looked for and didn't find

  • Its current legal relationship with the University of Chicago is described only in the historical account on its website; no current governance document was read, so no part-of relationship is recorded.
  • No standing non-news clients are recorded; its government and foundation research contracts were not reviewed.
  • No outside fieldwork vendor was found; AP-NORC polls use NORC's own AmeriSpeak panel.
  • Searches found no AAPOR statement, court ruling or filing, regulator action, aggregator statement about excluding or reweighting its polls, or retraction concerning NORC or AP-NORC polls.