Pollster · Commercial firm

Tulchin Research

Research draft

Polls since 2024: 5
Latest poll ended: September 13, 2026

Polls from the VoteHub polling API, used under CC BY 4.0. Each result links to the pollster's or sponsor's own release. Imported once a day; a poll VoteHub later changes keeps its earlier version on record here.

§1About

Drafted by AI from the public sources cited. Each sentence links to its source.

Tulchin Research is a public opinion research firm with offices in San Francisco and Chicago that offers surveys, focus groups, ad testing and data analytics, according to its website.^1,2 Its biography of president Ben Tulchin says he launched the firm in 2009, served as pollster to Bernie Sanders's presidential campaigns and has helped Democrats in recent Senate cycles.³ Its clients page lists candidates, Democratic party committees and caucuses, labor unions, nonprofits, public agencies and companies.⁴

Kind: Commercial firm¹
Founded: 2009³

§2Who it works with

Why this matters: Owners, news partners and the firms behind a poll's interviews shape what gets asked, how, and what gets published.

Polls regularly for

Senate Majority PAC. Its clients page and Ben Tulchin's biography name Senate Majority PAC as a client.^3,4
SEIU. Its clients page lists SEIU among the labor organizations it has worked with.⁴
ACLU. Its website lists the ACLU among its clients and describes work on a criminal justice reform project.^1,4

Founded by

Ben Tulchin (2009). Its biography of Ben Tulchin says he launched Tulchin Research in 2009.³

Led by

Ben Tulchin. Its team page names Ben Tulchin as president.²

Who paid for its polls

Sponsors named on its polls, most polls first⁵. A party-aligned flag is VoteHub's, per poll.
Sponsor	Polls	Between	Flagged party-aligned
House Majority PAC	3	June 21, 2026 – September 13, 2026	Democratic-aligned sponsor (3)
Fighting for Michigan PAC	1	June 4, 2026	Democratic-aligned sponsor (1)
Healthcare for Action	1	March 8, 2026	Democratic-aligned sponsor (1)

§3Whom it works for

Why this matters: A firm that also works for one party's campaigns can still publish accurate polls, but readers deserve to know.

Works for Democratic candidates or groups. Its clients page and its president's biography name Democratic party committees and caucuses, among them the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the California Assembly Democratic Caucus and the Illinois House Democratic Caucus, along with Senate Majority PAC and candidates such as Bernie Sanders and Gavin Newsom, and name no Republican campaign or committee. This rests on the clients it names.^3,4

Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Its clients page and Ben Tulchin's biography name the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee as a client.^3,4
California Assembly Democratic Caucus. Its clients page lists the California Assembly Democratic Caucus.⁴
Bernie Sanders (2016–now). Its website says it was pollster for Bernie Sanders's 2016 presidential campaign, and Ben Tulchin's biography says he served as Sanders's pollster.^1,3
Gavin Newsom. Its clients page and Ben Tulchin's biography name Gavin Newsom as a client.^3,4

Of its 5 polls listed since the 2024 election, VoteHub flags 5 as paid for by a Democratic-aligned sponsor and 0 by a Republican-aligned sponsor⁵.

Federal campaigns and committees that paid it

From 2023 through 2026, 23 federal committees reported paying Tulchin Research $1,461,855 for polling, surveys or research^6,7,8,9. By the party each committee reports to the FEC: 13 Democratic, 0 Republican, and 10 none (most PACs and super PACs report none).

The largest payers, by amount paid for polling, surveys or research. Only federal committees report to the FEC; state and local campaigns, work paid through another consultant, and polling billed as consulting are not here. Matched by the payee name on the filing: TULCHIN RESEARCH; TULCHIN RESEARCH LLC; TULCHIN RESEARCH, LLC.
Committee	Kind	Party it reports	Paid for polling	Between
CISNEROS FOR CONGRESS	House campaign	Democratic	$260,030	September 19, 2023 – September 30, 2024
FAIRSHAKE	Super PAC	None reported	$189,000	July 1, 2025 – July 30, 2026
DEREK TRAN FOR CONGRESS	House campaign	Democratic	$147,000	November 15, 2023 – October 10, 2024
FIGHTING FOR MICHIGAN PAC	Super PAC	None reported	$128,000	February 25, 2026 – July 21, 2026
NEW LEADERSHIP NOW	Super PAC	None reported	$115,015	April 1, 2026 – May 11, 2026
ESTHER KIM VARET FOR CONGRESS	House campaign	Democratic	$95,030	November 18, 2025 – April 30, 2026
DCCC	Party committee	Democratic	$62,500	July 19, 2024 – December 20, 2024
EVAN LOW FOR CONGRESS	House campaign	Democratic	$62,015	July 26, 2024 – August 30, 2024
NO SURRENDER FUND	PAC	None reported	$48,000	November 18, 2025 – November 20, 2025
FRIENDS OF JULIE	House campaign	Democratic	$44,000	December 21, 2023 – January 10, 2024
TORCHLIGHT PAC	PAC	Democratic	$39,000	December 17, 2025
DUNLAP FOR CONGRESS	House campaign	Democratic	$33,515	March 2, 2026 – April 1, 2026

§4Record against results

Why this matters: The one test that doesn't depend on other polls: how close a firm's final polls came to what voters did.

From FiveThirtyEight's final public data^10,11: general-election polls between a Democrat and a Republican in the last three weeks before each election, compared with the certified result. FiveThirtyEight rated each name polls were published under separately. Across all 8,957 such polls, the average miss was D+0.7, so the relative figure takes out the misses every pollster shared that year.

Error is the poll's D−R margin minus the result's; D+ means it showed Democrats doing better than they did.
Published as	Polls	Elections	Average miss	Relative to other polls	Typical size of miss	538's last rating
Tulchin Research	3	2010–2018	R+2.6	D+3.8	2.6 pts	0.9 of 3 · 1% partisan work

ABC News closed FiveThirtyEight in March 2025; its data stops at the 2022 elections. 2026 results will be added once states certify them.

§5Its polls

The 5 polls of its we list, newest first.
In the field	Question	Result	Paid for by	Sample
September 8–September 13, 2026	U.S. House · 2026 FL-27	Maria Elvira Salazar 47 · Eliott Rodriguez 46	House Majority PACDemocratic-aligned sponsor	600 LV
July 9–July 13, 2026	U.S. House · 2026 VA-02	Elaine Luria 47 · Jen Kiggans 47	House Majority PACDemocratic-aligned sponsor	700 LV
June 15–June 21, 2026	U.S. House · 2026 CA-22	Randy Villegas 48 · David Valadao 44	House Majority PACDemocratic-aligned sponsor	800 LV
June 2–June 4, 2026	U.S. Senate · 2026 Michigan	Abdul El-Sayed 46 · Mike Rogers 41	Fighting for Michigan PACDemocratic-aligned sponsor	500 LV
March 4–March 8, 2026	U.S. Senate · 2026 Illinois Democratic	Raja Krishnamoorthi 39 · Juliana Stratton 28 · Robin Kelly 12 · Kevin Ryan 3 · Christopher Swan 1	Healthcare for ActionDemocratic-aligned sponsor	600 LV

§6What we looked for and didn't find

No news partner or fieldwork vendor was named on the pages read.
VoteHub lists Fighting for Michigan PAC, Healthcare for Action and House Majority PAC as sponsors of some of its polls; the Politico pages that carry those releases could not be fetched, and no standing arrangement with any of them was found.
The clients page gives no dates for any client.
One search for AAPOR statements, lawsuits, retractions and complaints found none naming the firm; aggregator pages were not searched one by one.