Pollster · Works for one party

TargetSmart

Research draft
Polls since 2024
1
Latest poll ended
September 12, 2026

Polls from the VoteHub polling API, used under CC BY 4.0. Each result links to the pollster's or sponsor's own release. Imported once a day; a poll VoteHub later changes keeps its earlier version on record here.

§1About

Drafted by AI from the public sources cited. Each sentence links to its source.

TargetSmart describes itself on its website as the leading data, research and media buying provider for Democratic campaigns and progressive organizations, offering voter files, media buying, polling and analytics.1 A 2023 release from its parent, The TARA Group, says TargetSmart launched in 2006, and a June 2025 TargetSmart release names Liz Walters as its new CEO and Tom Bonier, who led TargetSmart for nearly a decade, as CEO of The TARA Group.2,3 Its polling page lists benchmark, tracking, ballot measure and issue polls, focus groups and modeling built on its own voter data, and names Sara Stephenson as director of research solutions.4

Kind
Works for one party1
Founded
20062

§2Who it works with

Why this matters: Owners, news partners and the firms behind a poll's interviews shape what gets asked, how, and what gets published.

Owned by

  • The TARA Group. A September 2023 TARA Group release calls TargetSmart a subsidiary of the group, which its website describes as a holding company with a portfolio of subsidiaries.2,5

Led by

  • Liz Walters (2025–now). A June 2025 TargetSmart release names Liz Walters as its new CEO.3

Who paid for its polls

Sponsors named on its polls, most polls first6. A party-aligned flag is VoteHub's, per poll.
SponsorPollsBetweenFlagged party-aligned
The Progress Fund1September 12, 2026Democratic-aligned sponsor (1)

§3Whom it works for

Why this matters: A firm that also works for one party's campaigns can still publish accurate polls, but readers deserve to know.

Works for Democratic candidates or groups. Based on its own description: its website says it serves Democratic campaigns and progressive organizations.1,3

Of its 1 poll listed since the 2024 election, VoteHub flags 1 as paid for by a Democratic-aligned sponsor and 0 by a Republican-aligned sponsor6.

Federal campaigns and committees that paid it

From 2023 through 2026, 4 federal committees reported paying TargetSmart $164,500 for polling, surveys or research7,8,9,10. By the party each committee reports to the FEC: 3 Democratic, 0 Republican, and 1 none (most PACs and super PACs report none).

The largest payers, by amount paid for polling, surveys or research. Only federal committees report to the FEC; state and local campaigns, work paid through another consultant, and polling billed as consulting are not here. Matched by the payee name on the filing: TARGETSMART.
CommitteeKindParty it reportsPaid for pollingBetween
PROGRESSNOW AZ - FEDERALSuper PACNone reported$61,000July 18, 2024
ELFRETH FOR MARYLANDHouse campaignDemocratic$52,000March 7, 2024 – April 25, 2024
MENENDEZ FOR CONGRESSHouse campaignDemocratic$49,000January 30, 2024
CAROL MURPHY FOR CONGRESSHouse campaignDemocratic$2,500September 18, 2024

§4Record against results

Why this matters: The one test that doesn't depend on other polls: how close a firm's final polls came to what voters did.

From FiveThirtyEight's final public data11,12: general-election polls between a Democrat and a Republican in the last three weeks before each election, compared with the certified result. FiveThirtyEight rated each name polls were published under separately. Across all 8,957 such polls, the average miss was D+0.7, so the relative figure takes out the misses every pollster shared that year.

Error is the poll's D−R margin minus the result's; D+ means it showed Democrats doing better than they did.
Published asPollsElectionsAverage missRelative to other pollsTypical size of miss538's last rating
TargetSmart32016D+5.3D+1.45.3 pts2.0 of 3

ABC News closed FiveThirtyEight in March 2025; its data stops at the 2022 elections. 2026 results will be added once states certify them.

§5Its polls

The 1 polls of its we list, newest first.
In the fieldQuestionResultWithPaid for bySample
September 9–September 12, 2026Governor · 2026 TennesseeMarsha Blackburn 45 · Jerri Green 36 · David Hatley 19 · Lauren Pinkston 2The Progress FundDemocratic-aligned sponsor600 LV

§6What we looked for and didn't find

  • The sample release (The Progress Fund's polling page in Tennessee) and that group's homepage returned HTTP 404, so the sponsored poll was not read.
  • No standing news partner, co-pollster or fieldwork and panel vendor was found; its polling page names none.
  • No named campaign or party clients were confirmed; its homepage shows partner logos without readable names.
  • A findings search found no AAPOR statement, court ruling, regulator action or retraction concerning TargetSmart; aggregator statements were left to the separate sweep and not searched here.