Probolsky Research: polls, partners and record

§1Who it works with

Why this matters: Owners, news partners and the firms behind a poll's interviews shape what gets asked, how, and what gets published.

Published with

Names its polls have been published under, alongside other pollsters or news outlets.

Reconnect Research/Probolsky Research: Reconnect Research

§2Whom it works for

Why this matters: A firm that also works for one party's campaigns can still publish accurate polls, but readers deserve to know.

Federal campaigns and committees that paid it

From 2023 through 2026, 1 federal committee reported paying Probolsky Research $34,750 for polling, surveys or research^1,2,3,4. By the party each committee reports to the FEC: 1 Democratic, 0 Republican, and 0 none (most PACs and super PACs report none).

The largest payers, by amount paid for polling, surveys or research. Only federal committees report to the FEC; state and local campaigns, work paid through another consultant, and polling billed as consulting are not here. Matched by the payee name on the filing: PROBOLSKY RESEARCH; PROBOLSKY RESEARCH LLC.
Committee	Kind	Party it reports	Paid for polling	Between
LATEEFAH FOR CONGRESS	House campaign	Democratic	$34,750	February 2, 2024 – September 26, 2024

§3Record against results

Why this matters: The one test that doesn't depend on other polls: how close a firm's final polls came to what voters did.

From FiveThirtyEight's final public data^5,6: general-election polls between a Democrat and a Republican in the last three weeks before each election, compared with the certified result. FiveThirtyEight rated each name polls were published under separately. Across all 8,957 such polls, the average miss was D+0.7, so the relative figure takes out the misses every pollster shared that year.

Error is the poll's D−R margin minus the result's; D+ means it showed Democrats doing better than they did.
Published as	Polls	Elections	Average miss	Relative to other polls	Typical size of miss	538's last rating
Probolsky Research	2	2014–2018	R+9.1	R+5.1	9.1 pts	1.3 of 3 · 0% partisan work
Reconnect Research/Probolsky Research	2	2020	R+1.6	R+1.1	1.6 pts	Not graded (inactive)

ABC News closed FiveThirtyEight in March 2025; its data stops at the 2022 elections. 2026 results will be added once states certify them.