Pollster · Commercial firm

Noble Predictive Insights

Research draft
Polls since 2024
28
Latest poll ended
October 28, 2026
House effect vs. other polls
D+0.5
Record vs. results, relative
R+0.8

Polls from the VoteHub polling API, used under CC BY 4.0. Each result links to the pollster's or sponsor's own release. Imported once a day; a poll VoteHub later changes keeps its earlier version on record here.

§1About

Drafted by AI from the public sources cited. Each sentence links to its source.

Noble Predictive Insights describes itself as a full-service market research, nonpartisan public opinion polling and data analytics firm, and lists a mailing address in Phoenix, Arizona.1,2 Its team page lists Mike Noble as founder and chief executive, and a 2023 company release says the firm was formerly named O.H. Predictive Insights.2,3 According to Daily Research News Online, Noble launched the company in 2016.4 A September 2025 memo from Mike Noble to Common Cause reports the findings of a redistricting poll for that group.5

Kind
Commercial firm1
Founded
20164

§2Who it works with

Why this matters: Owners, news partners and the firms behind a poll's interviews shape what gets asked, how, and what gets published.

News partners

  • The Center Square. A January 2024 post by the firm describes The Center Square Voters' Voice Poll as a partnership in which The Center Square, published by the Franklin News Foundation, works with Noble Predictive Insights, which conducts the poll, and refers to an earlier October wave.6

Founded by

  • Mike Noble (2016). The firm's team page lists Mike Noble as founder, and Daily Research News Online reported that he launched the company in 2016.2,4

Led by

  • Mike Noble. The firm's team page lists Mike Noble as founder and chief executive.2

Who paid for its polls

Sponsors named on its polls, most polls first7. A party-aligned flag is VoteHub's, per poll.
SponsorPollsBetweenFlagged party-aligned
The Center Square17April 18, 2025 – August 16, 2026No

§3Whom it works for

Why this matters: A firm that also works for one party's campaigns can still publish accurate polls, but readers deserve to know.

Says it does no work for parties or candidates. Its about page and a 2023 company release describe it as a nonpartisan polling firm; neither says whether it takes work from candidates or parties.1,3

Of its 28 polls listed since the 2024 election, VoteHub flags 0 as paid for by a Democratic-aligned sponsor and 0 by a Republican-aligned sponsor7.

Federal campaigns and committees that paid it

From 2023 through 2026, 1 federal committee reported paying Noble Predictive Insights $12,000 for polling, surveys or research8,9,10,11. By the party each committee reports to the FEC: 0 Democratic, 0 Republican, and 1 none (most PACs and super PACs report none).

The largest payers, by amount paid for polling, surveys or research. Only federal committees report to the FEC; state and local campaigns, work paid through another consultant, and polling billed as consulting are not here. Matched by the payee name on the filing: NOBLE PREDICTIVE INSIGHTS.
CommitteeKindParty it reportsPaid for pollingBetween
DEFEND THE TAXPAYERS PACPACNone reported$12,000January 27, 2026

§4How its numbers compare with other polls

Why this matters: A firm whose polls run steadily to one side of everyone else's is worth reading alongside others.

Each of its polls since the 2024 election is compared with other pollsters' polls of the same question whose field period ended within 14 days, each other pollster counted once7. The figure is the average gap, with a 95% margin. This compares it with other polls, not with the truth: the others can be the ones that are off.

Party margin
D+0.5 (±2.4) across 7 polls of the generic ballot and 2026 races, in 2 contests.
Net approval: Donald Trump
+3.5 points (±4.0) across 5 polls, against other polls of the same question.

D+ means its polls showed Democrats doing better than other polls did; R+, Republicans. A figure from fewer than 5 polls isn't shown.

§5Record against results

Why this matters: The one test that doesn't depend on other polls: how close a firm's final polls came to what voters did.

From FiveThirtyEight's final public data12,13: general-election polls between a Democrat and a Republican in the last three weeks before each election, compared with the certified result. FiveThirtyEight rated each name polls were published under separately. Across all 8,957 such polls, the average miss was D+0.7, so the relative figure takes out the misses every pollster shared that year.

Error is the poll's D−R margin minus the result's; D+ means it showed Democrats doing better than they did.
Published asPollsElectionsAverage missRelative to other pollsTypical size of miss538's last rating
Noble Predictive Insights102018–2022R+1.5R+0.83.9 pts2.4 of 3

ABC News closed FiveThirtyEight in March 2025; its data stops at the 2022 elections. 2026 results will be added once states certify them.

§62026 record against the count

Why this matters: How close this pollster's last 2026 polls came to how people voted, measured the way FiveThirtyEight measured earlier elections.

One poll of one race between a Democrat and a Republican, with field periods ending in the 21 days before November 3, 2026, compared with each race's count. Some of those races are still being counted, so these figures use the unofficial count and will change until states certify.

Average miss
R+6.9
Relative to other polls of the same races
D+0.3
Typical size of miss
6.9 pts

Error is the poll's D−R margin minus the count's, as shares of all votes in the race; D+ means it showed Democrats doing better than they did. From fewer than 5 polls, so read it as a few data points, not a pattern.

§7Its polls

The 28 polls of its we list, newest first.
In the fieldQuestionResultWithPaid for bySample
October 26–October 28, 2026Governor · 2026 ArizonaKatie Hobbs 51 · Andy Biggs 45 · Teri Ann Hourihan 1 · Risa Lombardo 0511 LV
September 22–September 26, 2026Governor · 2026 NevadaJoe Lombardo 38 · Aaron Ford 37 · Danielle Ford 7800 RV
August 12–August 16, 2026Generic congressional ballot · 2026Dem 47 · Rep 42The Center Square2,533 RV
August 12–August 16, 2026Presidential primary · 2028 RepublicanJD Vance 41 · Marco Rubio 18 · Ron DeSantis 6 · Ted Cruz 4 · Greg Abbott 3 · Nikki Haley 3 · 8 moreThe Center Square930 RV
August 12–August 16, 2026Job approval · Donald TrumpDisapprove 56 · Approve 42The Center Square2,533 RV
August 12–August 16, 2026Presidential primary · 2028 DemocraticKamala Harris 28 · Gavin Newsom 14 · Pete Buttigieg 12 · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 7 · Josh Shapiro 5 · Mark Kelly 5 · 7 moreThe Center Square930 RV
August 10–August 13, 2026Governor · 2026 ArizonaKatie Hobbs 48 · Andy Biggs 35 · Risa Lombardo 2 · Teri Ann Hourihan 1923 LV
June 1–June 4, 2026Presidential primary · 2028 DemocraticKamala Harris 27 · Gavin Newsom 14 · Pete Buttigieg 11 · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8 · Andy Beshear 2 · JB Pritzker 2The Center Square1,224 RV
June 1–June 4, 2026Job approval · Donald TrumpDisapprove 58 · Approve 40The Center Square2,585 RV
June 1–June 4, 2026Presidential primary · 2028 RepublicanJD Vance 36 · Marco Rubio 17 · Ron DeSantis 7 · Ted Cruz 5 · Vivek Ramaswamy 3 · Nikki Haley 3 · 8 moreThe Center Square1,064 RV
June 1–June 4, 2026Generic congressional ballot · 2026Dem 47 · Rep 41The Center Square2,585 RV
May 5–May 7, 2026Governor · 2026 ArizonaKatie Hobbs 41 · Andy Biggs 37996 RV
March 10–March 13, 2026Governor · 2026 NevadaJoe Lombardo 39 · Aaron Ford 38845 RV
March 2–March 5, 2026Job approval · Donald TrumpDisapprove 52 · Approve 46The Center Square2,659 RV
March 2–March 5, 2026Generic congressional ballot · 2026Dem 44 · Rep 43The Center Square2,659 RV
March 2–March 5, 2026Presidential primary · 2028 DemocraticKamala Harris 31 · Gavin Newsom 16 · Pete Buttigieg 7 · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 6 · Josh Shapiro 5 · Mark Kelly 4 · 7 moreThe Center Square1,152 RV
February 23–February 26, 2026Governor · 2026 ArizonaKatie Hobbs 42 · Andy Biggs 371,023 RV
October 7–October 13, 2025Governor · 2026 NevadaJoe Lombardo 40 · Aaron Ford 37766 RV
October 2–October 6, 2025Presidential primary · 2028 RepublicanJ.D. Vance 38 · Donald Trump Jr. 25 · Ron DeSantis 6 · Marco Rubio 4 · Nikki Haley 3 · Ted Cruz 3 · 3 moreThe Center Square1,156 RV
October 2–October 6, 2025Job approval · Donald TrumpDisapprove 50 · Approve 48The Center Square2,565 RV
October 2–October 6, 2025Generic congressional ballot · 2026Dem 45 · Rep 43The Center Square2,565 RV
October 2–October 6, 2025Presidential primary · 2028 DemocraticKamala Harris 33 · Gavin Newsom 21 · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8 · Pete Buttigieg 7 · Josh Shapiro 4 · JB Pritzker 4 · 2 moreThe Center Square1,147 RV
August 26–September 3, 2025proposition 50 · 2025 CaliforniaYes 54 · No 31484 RV
August 11–August 18, 2025Governor · 2026 ArizonaKatie Hobbs 39 · Andy Biggs 37948 RV
May 12–May 16, 2025Governor · 2026 ArizonaKatie Hobbs 40 · Andy Biggs 381,026 RV
April 15–April 18, 2025Job approval · Donald TrumpDisapprove 53 · Approve 44The Center Square2,527 RV
April 15–April 18, 2025Generic congressional ballot · 2026Dem 45 · Rep 42The Center Square2,527 RV
February 11–February 13, 2025Governor · 2026 ArizonaKatie Hobbs 40 · Andy Biggs 381,006 RV

§8What we looked for and didn't find

  • The Center Square's polls page returned HTTP 402 (paid access), so the current status of the Voters' Voice Poll arrangement was not confirmed from the outlet.
  • Ownership beyond its founder was not stated on the pages read.
  • No fieldwork or panel vendor was named on the pages read.
  • Its about page shows client logos, but the names are not given in text and are not recorded as relationships.
  • Searches found no AAPOR statement, court ruling or filing, regulator action, aggregator statement about excluding or reweighting its polls, or retraction by the firm.