National Public Affairs

§1About

✎ Drafted by AI from the public sources cited. Each sentence links to its source.

National Public Affairs (NPA) is a campaign polling firm whose website offers benchmark, tracking and brushfire polls, focus groups and audience targeting to campaigns, candidates and ballot initiatives.^1,2 Its website carries the line An American Made Media Company; that company's site lists offices in Arlington, Virginia and Jupiter, Florida, names Sean Dollman and Justin Clark as founding partners, and lists Wyatt Dietrick as executive vice president for polling and data analysis.^1,3,4

Kind

Commercial firm^1,2

§2Who it works with

Why this matters: Owners, news partners and the firms behind a poll's interviews shape what gets asked, how, and what gets published.

Who paid for its polls

§3Whom it works for

Why this matters: A firm that also works for one party's campaigns can still publish accurate polls, but readers deserve to know.

Works for Republican candidates or groups, by its federal filings. From 2023 through 2026, 10 federal committees reporting Republican affiliation paid it, and none reporting Democratic^6,7,8,9. The NPA and American Made Media Company pages read do not say which party or parties it works for; its highlights page shows campaign logos without naming the candidates' parties.^1,2,10,11

• Mary Miller for Congress. The NPA highlights page, under the heading we win everywhere, shows a logo whose image file is named for Mary Miller for Congress.¹⁰
• Lori Chavez-DeRemer campaign. The NPA highlights page, under the heading we win everywhere, shows a logo whose image file is named for Lori Chavez-DeRemer.¹⁰
• Van Drew campaign. The NPA highlights page, under the heading we win everywhere, shows a logo whose image file is named for Van Drew.¹⁰
• Mullin campaign. The NPA highlights page, under the heading we win everywhere, shows a logo whose image file is named for Mullin.¹⁰

Of its 10 polls listed since the 2024 election, VoteHub flags 0 as paid for by a Democratic-aligned sponsor and 3 by a Republican-aligned sponsor⁵.

Federal campaigns and committees that paid it

From 2023 through 2026, 13 federal committees reported paying National Public Affairs $459,637 for polling, surveys or research^6,7,8,9. By the party each committee reports to the FEC: 0 Democratic, 10 Republican, and 3 none (most PACs and super PACs report none).

§4How its numbers compare with other polls

Why this matters: A firm whose polls run steadily to one side of everyone else's is worth reading alongside others.

Each of its polls since the 2024 election is compared with other pollsters' polls of the same question whose field period ended within 14 days, each other pollster counted once⁵. The figure is the average gap, with a 95% margin. This compares it with other polls, not with the truth: the others can be the ones that are off.

Party margin

R+2.7 (±1.1) across 5 polls of the generic ballot and 2026 races, in 5 contests.

D+ means its polls showed Democrats doing better than other polls did; R+, Republicans. A figure from fewer than 5 polls isn't shown.

§52026 record against the count

Why this matters: How close this pollster's last 2026 polls came to how people voted, measured the way FiveThirtyEight measured earlier elections.

One poll of one race between a Democrat and a Republican, with field periods ending in the 21 days before November 3, 2026, compared with each race's count. Some of those races are still being counted, so these figures use the unofficial count and will change until states certify.

Average miss

D+2.0

Relative to other polls of the same races

R+0.7

Typical size of miss

2.0 pts

Error is the poll's D−R margin minus the count's, as shares of all votes in the race; D+ means it showed Democrats doing better than they did. From fewer than 5 polls, so read it as a few data points, not a pattern.

§6Its polls

§7What we looked for and didn't find

• No founding date or named NPA leader was found; the American Made Media Company team page lists names and titles without biographies or saying who runs NPA.
• The client logos on the highlights page are identified only from their image file names and alt text, and the parties of those candidates were not cited from a primary source in this pass, so partisanWork stays not-stated; a reviewer can apply the client rule once they are cited. Some poll listings label the firm R (for example Political Wire), which is not a basis under the README rule.
• No news partners, standing clients or fieldwork vendors were found; its services page names none.
• The sample release memos on its backend server now return HTTP 404, so their methodology and sponsor lines could not be read; God Family & Country PAC appears as a sponsor on its polls in our data but was not checked as a standing relationship.