Pollster · Commercial firm

GrayHouse

Also published as Grayhouse.

Research draft
Polls since 2024
15
Latest poll ended
October 31, 2026
House effect vs. other polls
R+0.9

Polls from the VoteHub polling API, used under CC BY 4.0. Each result links to the pollster's or sponsor's own release. Imported once a day; a poll VoteHub later changes keeps its earlier version on record here.

§1About

Drafted by AI from the public sources cited. Each sentence links to its source.

GrayHouse describes itself on its website as a political data analytics firm offering multi-mode polling, message testing, predictive modeling, focus groups and political consulting.1 Its About page names Landon Wall as founder and Austin Derbak, who previously worked at Fabrizio, Lee & Associates and is based in the Washington area, as lead research analyst.2 Its December 2025 national poll deck says the survey of 2,058 registered voters used a non-probability online panel with identity checks and was weighted in part by recalled 2024 presidential vote and party identification.3

Kind
Commercial firm1

§2Who it works with

Why this matters: Owners, news partners and the firms behind a poll's interviews shape what gets asked, how, and what gets published.

Founded by

  • Landon Wall. The GrayHouse About page names Landon Wall as its founder.2

Who paid for its polls

Sponsors named on its polls, most polls first4. A party-aligned flag is VoteHub's, per poll.
SponsorPollsBetweenFlagged party-aligned
America One Policies9June 2, 2025 – October 28, 2026Republican-aligned sponsor (9)

§3Whom it works for

Why this matters: A firm that also works for one party's campaigns can still publish accurate polls, but readers deserve to know.

Works for Republican candidates or groups. The GrayHouse About page calls Wall a trusted advisor to Republican leadership, cites Politico describing him as the go-to pollster for the Senate Republican Conference, and says he has built analytics operations for dozens of campaigns; it names no Democratic clients.2

  • Senate Republican Conference. The GrayHouse About page cites Politico describing Wall as the go-to pollster for the Senate Republican Conference.2

Of its 15 polls listed since the 2024 election, VoteHub flags 0 as paid for by a Democratic-aligned sponsor and 12 by a Republican-aligned sponsor4.

Federal campaigns and committees that paid it

From 2023 through 2026, 5 federal committees reported paying GrayHouse $164,000 for polling, surveys or research5,6,7,8. By the party each committee reports to the FEC: 0 Democratic, 3 Republican, and 2 none (most PACs and super PACs report none).

The largest payers, by amount paid for polling, surveys or research. Only federal committees report to the FEC; state and local campaigns, work paid through another consultant, and polling billed as consulting are not here. Matched by the payee name on the filing: GRAYHOUSE; GRAYHOUSE LLC.
CommitteeKindParty it reportsPaid for pollingBetween
CONSTANTINO FOR CONGRESS, INC.House campaignRepublican$46,000February 25, 2026 – June 10, 2026
E-PACPACNone reported$40,000October 16, 2025
NY REPUBLICAN FEDERAL CAMPAIGN COMMITTEEParty committeeRepublican$37,000April 4, 2025 – December 10, 2025
ARKANSANS FOR DEMOCRACY AND JUSTICESuper PACNone reported$23,000January 27, 2026
CISCOMANI FOR CONGRESSHouse campaignRepublican$18,000October 28, 2024 – May 16, 2025

§4How its numbers compare with other polls

Why this matters: A firm whose polls run steadily to one side of everyone else's is worth reading alongside others.

Each of its polls since the 2024 election is compared with other pollsters' polls of the same question whose field period ended within 14 days, each other pollster counted once4. The figure is the average gap, with a 95% margin. This compares it with other polls, not with the truth: the others can be the ones that are off.

Party margin
R+0.9 (±0.8) across 6 polls of the generic ballot and 2026 races, in 4 contests.

D+ means its polls showed Democrats doing better than other polls did; R+, Republicans. A figure from fewer than 5 polls isn't shown.

§52026 record against the count

Why this matters: How close this pollster's last 2026 polls came to how people voted, measured the way FiveThirtyEight measured earlier elections.

2 polls of 2 races between a Democrat and a Republican, with field periods ending in the 21 days before November 3, 2026, compared with each race's count. Some of those races are still being counted, so these figures use the unofficial count and will change until states certify.

Average miss
R+5.5
Relative to other polls of the same races
R+1.6
Typical size of miss
5.5 pts

Error is the poll's D−R margin minus the count's, as shares of all votes in the race; D+ means it showed Democrats doing better than they did. From fewer than 5 polls, so read it as a few data points, not a pattern.

§6Its polls

The 15 polls of its we list, newest first.
In the fieldQuestionResultWithPaid for bySample
October 28–October 31, 2026U.S. Senate · 2026 IowaAshley Hinson 48 · Josh Turek 46 · Thomas Laehn 2601 LV
October 27–October 28, 2026U.S. Senate · 2026 ArkansasTom Cotton 55 · Hallie Shoffner 39 · Jeff Wadlin 4America One PoliciesRepublican-aligned sponsor509 LV
October 18–October 20, 2026Governor · 2026 ArizonaKatie Hobbs 51 · Andy Biggs 45 · Teri Ann Hourihan 2 · Risa Lombardo 0550 LV
September 30–October 4, 2026U.S. Senate · 2026 ArkansasTom Cotton 51 · Hallie Shoffner 40 · Jeff Wadlin 4550 LV
June 23–June 24, 2026U.S. Senate · 2026 MontanaKurt Alme 41 · Alani Bankhead 25 · Seth Bodnar 17 · Kyle Austin 3Republican-aligned sponsor500 LV
February 20–February 23, 2026Generic congressional ballot · 2026Dem 43 · Rep 40America One PoliciesRepublican-aligned sponsor1,394 RV
February 7–February 9, 2026U.S. Senate · 2026 ArkansasTom Cotton 58 · Hallie Shoffner 36America One PoliciesRepublican-aligned sponsor550 LV
December 6–December 8, 2025Generic congressional ballot · 2026Dem 45 · Rep 41America One PoliciesRepublican-aligned sponsor2,058 RV
November 7–November 9, 2025Favorability · Donald TrumpUnfavorable 52 · Favorable 45America One PoliciesRepublican-aligned sponsor1,475 RV
November 7–November 9, 2025Job approval · Donald TrumpDisapprove 53 · Approve 45America One PoliciesRepublican-aligned sponsor1,475 RV
July 27–July 29, 2025Generic congressional ballot · 2026Dem 47 · Rep 44America One PoliciesRepublican-aligned sponsor2,000 RV
July 27–July 29, 2025Job approval · Donald TrumpDisapprove 51 · Approve 46America One PoliciesRepublican-aligned sponsor2,000 RV
May 29–June 2, 2025Job approval · Donald TrumpDisapprove 49 · Approve 48America One PoliciesRepublican-aligned sponsor2,000 RV
April 22–April 24, 2025Governor · 2026 New YorkKathy Hochul 44 · Bruce Blakeman 36Republican-aligned sponsor600 RV
April 10–April 13, 2025Job approval · Donald TrumpDisapprove 52 · Approve 46Republican-aligned sponsor1,100 RV

§7What we looked for and didn't find

  • No founding year, headquarters or ownership information beyond Wall as founder was found on its website.
  • America One Policies, the sponsor name seen on its polls, is not named in the three GrayHouse poll decks read, and no page describing that organization or its relationship with GrayHouse was found.
  • The online panel vendor is not named.
  • No standing news partners were found.
  • The Politico description is quoted on the GrayHouse site; the Politico article itself was not read.
  • Searches found no AAPOR statement, court ruling or filing, regulator action, aggregator statement about excluding or reweighting its polls, or retraction by the firm.