Pollster · Works for one party

FM3 Research

Research draft

Polls since 2024: 4
Latest poll ended: July 1, 2026
Record vs. results, relative: D+5.4

Polls from the VoteHub polling API, used under CC BY 4.0. Each result links to the pollster's or sponsor's own release. Imported once a day; a poll VoteHub later changes keeps its earlier version on record here.

§1About

Drafted by AI from the public sources cited. Each sentence links to its source.

Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz and Associates, known as FM3 Research, describes itself as a California leader in opinion research and strategic advice, with senior staff in the Bay Area, Los Angeles and Portland, Oregon.^1,2 Its about page says it began in 1981 conducting surveys for candidate and ballot measure campaigns, that political campaigns remain its core business, and that it also works for government agencies, nonprofits and businesses.² Its team page lists eight partners, with David Metz as partner and president.³ A House Majority PAC release says FM3 Research conducted its poll of Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District fielded June 20 to 25, 2026.⁴

Kind: Works for one party^2,5
Founded: 1981²

§2Who it works with

Why this matters: Owners, news partners and the firms behind a poll's interviews shape what gets asked, how, and what gets published.

Polls regularly for

Colorado College State of the Rockies Project (2024–now). Colorado College and KSUT name a pollster from FM3 as the Democratic half of the bipartisan team behind the annual Conservation in the West poll in 2024 and 2026.^6,7

Polls jointly with

New Bridge Strategy (2024–now). Colorado College and KSUT name Lori Weigel of New Bridge Strategy as the Republican pollster working with FM3 on the Conservation in the West poll in 2024 and 2026.^6,7

Founded by

Richard Maullin. The FM3 team page describes the late Richard Maullin as a founding partner and former president.³

Led by

David Metz. The FM3 team page lists David Metz as partner and president.³

Who paid for its polls

Sponsors named on its polls, most polls first⁸. A party-aligned flag is VoteHub's, per poll.
Sponsor	Polls	Between	Flagged party-aligned
House Majority PAC	2	June 25, 2026 – July 1, 2026	Democratic-aligned sponsor (2)
American Future PAC	1	March 12, 2026	Democratic-aligned sponsor (1)
Charlie Health	1	February 4, 2026	Democratic-aligned sponsor (1)

§3Whom it works for

Why this matters: A firm that also works for one party's campaigns can still publish accurate polls, but readers deserve to know.

Works for Democratic candidates or groups. Its clients page says it works extensively on Democratic political campaigns and independent expenditures, from city council races to presidential races. This rests on the firm's own description.⁵

Of its 4 polls listed since the 2024 election, VoteHub flags 4 as paid for by a Democratic-aligned sponsor and 0 by a Republican-aligned sponsor⁸.

Federal campaigns and committees that paid it

From 2023 through 2026, 4 federal committees reported paying FM3 Research $909,975 for polling, surveys or research^9,10,11,12. By the party each committee reports to the FEC: 2 Democratic, 0 Republican, and 2 none (most PACs and super PACs report none).

The largest payers, by amount paid for polling, surveys or research. Only federal committees report to the FEC; state and local campaigns, work paid through another consultant, and polling billed as consulting are not here. Matched by the payee name on the filing: FM3 RESEARCH.
Committee	Kind	Party it reports	Paid for polling	Between
AMERICAN FUTURE	Super PAC	None reported	$792,294	January 9, 2026 – June 25, 2026
BARBARA LEE FOR US SENATE	Senate campaign	Democratic	$69,556	August 24, 2023 – January 10, 2025
CONROY FOR CONGRESS	House campaign	Democratic	$27,000	October 11, 2024
EMILYS LIST	PAC	None reported	$21,125	September 13, 2024

§4Record against results

Why this matters: The one test that doesn't depend on other polls: how close a firm's final polls came to what voters did.

From FiveThirtyEight's final public data^13,14: general-election polls between a Democrat and a Republican in the last three weeks before each election, compared with the certified result. FiveThirtyEight rated each name polls were published under separately. Across all 8,957 such polls, the average miss was D+0.7, so the relative figure takes out the misses every pollster shared that year.

Error is the poll's D−R margin minus the result's; D+ means it showed Democrats doing better than they did.
Published as	Polls	Elections	Average miss	Relative to other polls	Typical size of miss	538's last rating
FM3 Research	10	1998–2022	D+8.3	D+5.4	8.8 pts	0.7 of 3 · 1% partisan work

ABC News closed FiveThirtyEight in March 2025; its data stops at the 2022 elections. 2026 results will be added once states certify them.

§5Its polls

The 4 polls of its we list, newest first.
In the field	Question	Result	Paid for by	Sample
June 27–July 1, 2026	U.S. House · 2026 NY-17	Cait Conley 51 · Mike Lawler 45	House Majority PACDemocratic-aligned sponsor	509 LV
June 20–June 25, 2026	U.S. House · 2026 WI-03	Rebecca Cooke 50 · Derrick Van Orden 46	House Majority PACDemocratic-aligned sponsor	535 LV
March 10–March 12, 2026	U.S. Senate · 2026 Illinois Democratic	Juliana Stratton 38 · Raja Krishnamoorthi 33 · Robin Kelly 18	American Future PACDemocratic-aligned sponsor	678 LV
January 26–February 4, 2026	Governor · 2026 Oregon	Tina Kotek 45 · Christine Drazan 40	Charlie HealthDemocratic-aligned sponsor	1,065 LV

§6What we looked for and didn't find

No ownership details were found beyond the partners listed on its team page.
Its clients page names no specific campaigns, party committees or PACs, so no campaign-client or party-client relationships are recorded.
The first year of its work on the Conservation in the West poll was not confirmed; only the 2024 and 2026 editions were read.
American Future PAC and Charlie Health appear as sponsors in our records, but no source about those polls was read.
No fieldwork or panel vendors were found.
Searches found no AAPOR statement, court ruling or filing, regulator action, aggregator statement about excluding or reweighting its polls, or retraction by the firm.
The Silver Bulletin ratings table and the VoteHub methodology pages could not be read, so aggregator checks rest on published text from aggregators and news searches.