Pollster · Commercial firm

The Bullfinch Group

Research draft
Polls since 2024
66
Latest poll ended
September 6, 2026
House effect vs. other polls
D+3.2

Polls from the VoteHub polling API, used under CC BY 4.0. Each result links to the pollster's or sponsor's own release. Imported once a day; a poll VoteHub later changes keeps its earlier version on record here.

§1About

Drafted by AI from the public sources cited. Each sentence links to its source.

The Bullfinch Group LLC is a polling, messaging and strategy firm whose website names Brett Loyd as president and CEO.1 Its website says it serves candidates, corporations and issue-based organizations, and it publishes quarterly nationwide online surveys of about 1,200 adults.1,2

Kind
Commercial firm1,3

§2Who it works with

Why this matters: Owners, news partners and the firms behind a poll's interviews shape what gets asked, how, and what gets published.

Polls regularly for

  • Independent Center. The Independent Center says it partners with The Bullfinch Group on polling about political independents, and the Bullfinch site lists the Independent Center as an affiliate and Brett Loyd as one of its founding partners.1,4

Who paid for its polls

Sponsors named on its polls, most polls first5. A party-aligned flag is VoteHub's, per poll.
SponsorPollsBetweenFlagged party-aligned
The Independent Center41January 22, 2024 – August 4, 2026No
Exiled Policy4June 20, 2025No
The Independent Leadership Council2July 16, 2026 – September 6, 2026No

§3Whom it works for

Why this matters: A firm that also works for one party's campaigns can still publish accurate polls, but readers deserve to know.

Says it does no work for parties or candidates. Its website calls the firm nonpartisan and says it does not take sides, while also saying it works for candidates, corporations and issue-based groups.1,3

Of its 66 polls listed since the 2024 election, VoteHub flags 0 as paid for by a Democratic-aligned sponsor and 0 by a Republican-aligned sponsor5.

Federal campaigns and committees that paid it

From 2023 through 2026, 1 federal committee reported paying The Bullfinch Group $11,000 for polling, surveys or research6,7,8,9. By the party each committee reports to the FEC: 0 Democratic, 0 Republican, 1 another party, and 0 none (most PACs and super PACs report none).

The largest payers, by amount paid for polling, surveys or research. Only federal committees report to the FEC; state and local campaigns, work paid through another consultant, and polling billed as consulting are not here. Matched by the payee name on the filing: THE BULLFINCH GROUP.
CommitteeKindParty it reportsPaid for pollingBetween
TODD ACHILLES FOR IDAHOSenate campaignOther party$11,000August 17, 2026

§4How its numbers compare with other polls

Why this matters: A firm whose polls run steadily to one side of everyone else's is worth reading alongside others.

Each of its polls since the 2024 election is compared with other pollsters' polls of the same question whose field period ended within 14 days, each other pollster counted once5. The figure is the average gap, with a 95% margin. This compares it with other polls, not with the truth: the others can be the ones that are off.

Party margin
D+3.2 (±1.7) across 7 polls of the generic ballot and 2026 races, in 2 contests.
Net approval: Donald Trump
−0.6 points (±1.7) across 22 polls, against other polls of the same question.
Net approval: Congress
+17.8 points (±3.4) across 21 polls, against other polls of the same question.
Net favorability: Donald Trump
−0.7 points (±4.2) across 6 polls, against other polls of the same question.

D+ means its polls showed Democrats doing better than other polls did; R+, Republicans. A figure from fewer than 5 polls isn't shown.

§5Its polls

The 96 polls of its we list, newest first.
In the fieldQuestionResultWithPaid for bySample
September 1–September 6, 2026U.S. House · 2026 AK-01Nick Begich 50.3 · Bill Hill 46.5The Independent Leadership Council820 LV
August 4–August 7, 2026U.S. Senate · 2026 IdahoJim Risch 34 · Todd Achilles 30 · Matt Loesby 4608 LV
July 31–August 4, 2026U.S. House · 2026 IL-04Patty Garcia 34 · Lupe Castillo 15 · Chris Getty 9 · Ed Hershey 4The Independent Center653 RV
July 13–July 16, 2026U.S. House · 2026 CA-06Richard Pan 39 · Kevin Kiley 35The Independent Center741 LV
July 13–July 16, 2026U.S. Senate · 2026 MontanaKurt Alme 36 · Seth Bodnar 24 · Alani Bankhead 22The Independent Center793 LV
July 13–July 16, 2026U.S. House · 2026 AK-01Nick Begich III 46 · Matt Schultz 32 · Bill Hill 20The Independent Center546 LV
July 13–July 16, 2026U.S. House · 2026 AK-01Nick Begich 52 · Bill Hill 48The Independent Center, The Independent Leadership Council546 LV
July 13–July 16, 2026U.S. House · 2026 IA-01Christina Bohannan 40 · Mariannette Miller-Meeks 35 · Michael Bridgford 11The Independent Center705 LV
June 12–June 16, 2026Job approval · Donald TrumpDisapprove 56 · Approve 40The Independent Center1,200 A
June 12–June 16, 2026Generic congressional ballot · 2026Dem 43 · Rep 34The Independent Center1,200 A
June 12–June 16, 2026Generic congressional ballot · 2026Dem 44 · Rep 36The Independent Center1,000 RV
June 12–June 16, 2026Job approval · CongressDisapprove 54 · Approve 35The Independent Center1,200 A
June 12–June 16, 2026Job approval · CongressDisapprove 56 · Approve 36The Independent Center1,000 RV
June 12–June 16, 2026Job approval · Donald TrumpDisapprove 56 · Approve 42The Independent Center1,000 RV
May 29–June 2, 2026Generic congressional ballot · 2026Dem 41 · Rep 341,200 A
May 29–June 2, 2026Generic congressional ballot · 2026Dem 42 · Rep 361,000 RV
May 29–June 2, 2026Job approval · Donald TrumpDisapprove 55 · Approve 411,200 A
May 29–June 2, 2026Job approval · CongressDisapprove 49 · Approve 391,200 A
May 29–June 2, 2026Job approval · Donald TrumpDisapprove 55 · Approve 421,000 RV
May 29–June 2, 2026Job approval · CongressDisapprove 50 · Approve 401,000 RV
December 30–January 3, 2026Job approval · Donald TrumpDisapprove 57 · Approve 40The Independent Center1,000 RV
December 30–January 3, 2026Generic congressional ballot · 2026Dem 44 · Rep 33The Independent Center1,000 RV
December 30–January 3, 2026Generic congressional ballot · 2026Dem 40 · Rep 30The Independent Center1,200 A
December 30–January 3, 2026Favorability · Donald TrumpUnfavorable 53 · Favorable 36The Independent Center1,000 RV
December 30–January 3, 2026Favorability · Donald TrumpUnfavorable 53 · Favorable 33The Independent Center1,200 A
December 30–January 3, 2026Job approval · CongressDisapprove 62 · Approve 31The Independent Center1,000 RV
December 30–January 3, 2026Job approval · CongressDisapprove 61 · Approve 29The Independent Center1,200 A
December 30–January 3, 2026Job approval · Donald TrumpDisapprove 58 · Approve 38The Independent Center1,200 A
November 21–November 25, 2025Job approval · Donald TrumpDisapprove 54 · Approve 401,000 RV
November 21–November 25, 2025Job approval · CongressDisapprove 53 · Approve 321,200 A
November 21–November 25, 2025Job approval · CongressDisapprove 55 · Approve 331,000 RV
November 21–November 25, 2025Job approval · Donald TrumpDisapprove 54 · Approve 391,200 A
October 10–October 16, 2025Job approval · CongressDisapprove 55 · Approve 32The Independent Center1,200 A
October 10–October 16, 2025Job approval · Donald TrumpDisapprove 52 · Approve 42The Independent Center1,200 A
October 10–October 16, 2025Favorability · JD VanceUnfavorable 46 · Favorable 42The Independent Center1,000 RV
October 10–October 16, 2025Favorability · JD VanceUnfavorable 45 · Favorable 39The Independent Center1,200 A
October 10–October 16, 2025Favorability · Donald TrumpUnfavorable 51 · Favorable 45The Independent Center1,000 RV
October 10–October 16, 2025Favorability · Donald TrumpUnfavorable 51 · Favorable 44The Independent Center1,200 A
October 10–October 16, 2025Job approval · CongressDisapprove 57 · Approve 32The Independent Center1,000 RV
October 10–October 16, 2025Job approval · Donald TrumpDisapprove 53 · Approve 42The Independent Center1,000 RV
September 6–September 11, 2025Job approval · CongressDisapprove 51 · Approve 41The Independent Center1,700 RV
September 6–September 11, 2025Job approval · CongressDisapprove 49 · Approve 39The Independent Center2,000 A
September 6–September 11, 2025Job approval · Donald TrumpDisapprove 51 · Approve 45The Independent Center2,000 A
September 6–September 11, 2025Job approval · Donald TrumpDisapprove 51 · Approve 47The Independent Center1,700 RV
September 6–September 11, 2025Favorability · Donald TrumpUnfavorable 46 · Favorable 39The Independent Center2,000 A
September 6–September 11, 2025Favorability · Donald TrumpUnfavorable 47 · Favorable 41The Independent Center1,700 RV
July 18–July 22, 2025Job approval · CongressDisapprove 55 · Approve 361,000 RV
July 18–July 22, 2025Job approval · CongressDisapprove 53 · Approve 361,200 A
July 18–July 22, 2025Job approval · Donald TrumpDisapprove 55 · Approve 411,200 A
July 18–July 22, 2025Job approval · Donald TrumpDisapprove 56 · Approve 421,000 RV
June 17–June 20, 2025Job approval · Supreme CourtDisapprove 54 · Approve 34Exiled Policy1,223 A
June 17–June 20, 2025Job approval · CongressDisapprove 56 · Approve 35Exiled Policy1,006 RV
June 17–June 20, 2025Job approval · Donald TrumpDisapprove 54 · Approve 43Exiled Policy1,006 RV
June 17–June 20, 2025Job approval · Donald TrumpDisapprove 54 · Approve 41Exiled Policy1,223 A
May 9–May 13, 2025Job approval · CongressDisapprove 51 · Approve 361,200 A
May 9–May 13, 2025Job approval · CongressDisapprove 52 · Approve 361,000 RV
May 9–May 13, 2025Job approval · Donald TrumpDisapprove 51 · Approve 451,000 RV
May 9–May 13, 2025Job approval · Donald TrumpDisapprove 51 · Approve 451,000 RV
May 9–May 13, 2025Job approval · Donald TrumpDisapprove 50 · Approve 451,200 A
April 18–April 24, 2025Job approval · Donald TrumpDisapprove 51 · Approve 461,000 RV
April 18–April 24, 2025Job approval · Donald TrumpDisapprove 51 · Approve 461,200 A
February 22–February 26, 2025Job approval · Donald TrumpApprove 48 · Disapprove 47The Independent Center1,000 RV
February 22–February 26, 2025Job approval · CongressDisapprove 48 · Approve 37The Independent Center1,000 RV
February 22–February 26, 2025Job approval · CongressDisapprove 47 · Approve 36The Independent Center1,200 A
December 3–December 7, 2024Job approval · CongressDisapprove 53 · Approve 31The Independent Center1,200 A
December 3–December 7, 2024Job approval · CongressDisapprove 55 · Approve 31The Independent Center1,000 RV
August 19–August 21, 2024Job approval · CongressDisapprove 60 · Approve 281,000 RV
August 19–August 21, 2024Job approval · CongressDisapprove 58 · Approve 271,200 A
July 14–July 21, 2024Job approval · CongressDisapprove 60 · Approve 29The Independent Center1,030 RV
May 16–May 21, 2024Job approval · CongressDisapprove 63 · Approve 271,000 RV
May 16–May 21, 2024Job approval · CongressDisapprove 62 · Approve 271,200 A
February 17–February 22, 2024Job approval · CongressDisapprove 59 · Approve 281,200 A
February 17–February 22, 2024Job approval · CongressDisapprove 61 · Approve 281,000 RV
January 19–January 22, 2024Job approval · CongressDisapprove 62 · Approve 29The Independent Center1,002 RV
August 5–August 10, 2023Job approval · CongressDisapprove 56 · Approve 341,000 RV
August 5–August 10, 2023Job approval · CongressDisapprove 55 · Approve 331,200 A
May 12–May 17, 2023Job approval · CongressDisapprove 55 · Approve 321,200 A
May 12–May 17, 2023Job approval · CongressDisapprove 56 · Approve 341,000 RV
February 17–February 22, 2023Job approval · CongressDisapprove 57 · Approve 321,001 RV
February 17–February 22, 2023Job approval · CongressDisapprove 56 · Approve 311,201 A
November 18–November 22, 2022Job approval · CongressDisapprove 56 · Approve 371,000 RV
November 18–November 22, 2022Job approval · CongressDisapprove 54 · Approve 361,200 A
August 5–August 8, 2022Job approval · CongressDisapprove 59 · Approve 321,208 A
August 5–August 8, 2022Job approval · CongressDisapprove 60 · Approve 331,008 RV
May 12–May 16, 2022Job approval · CongressDisapprove 59 · Approve 341,000 RV
May 12–May 16, 2022Job approval · CongressDisapprove 57 · Approve 321,200 A
February 19–February 23, 2022Job approval · CongressDisapprove 57 · Approve 321,044 RV
February 19–February 23, 2022Job approval · CongressDisapprove 56 · Approve 311,247 A
November 11–November 14, 2021Job approval · CongressDisapprove 59 · Approve 321,200 A
November 11–November 14, 2021Job approval · CongressDisapprove 61 · Approve 321,000 RV
September 16–September 19, 2021Job approval · CongressDisapprove 54 · Approve 361,200 A
September 16–September 19, 2021Job approval · CongressDisapprove 55 · Approve 371,000 RV
June 3–June 7, 2021Job approval · CongressDisapprove 50 · Approve 391,200 A
June 3–June 7, 2021Job approval · CongressDisapprove 51 · Approve 401,000 RV
March 4–March 8, 2021Job approval · CongressDisapprove 45 · Approve 431,200 A
March 4–March 8, 2021Job approval · CongressDisapprove 47 · Approve 421,000 RV

§6What we looked for and didn't find

  • No founding year or office location found; its About page says only that Brett Loyd lives in Washington, D.C.
  • No ownership or parent company found.
  • No named campaign or party clients found on its site; its About page says Brett Loyd has worked with presidential, Senate, House and governor campaigns and national political committees without naming them.
  • Its 2026 Idaho Senate poll releases do not say who paid for them, so no client is recorded for them.
  • Its site lists MainFrame and JunctionAI as affiliates and says its Q1 2026 survey was conducted with MainFrame; what MainFrame is was not established, so no relationship is recorded.
  • No fieldwork vendor found; its releases describe online surveys without naming a panel provider.
  • Findings search: web searches combining the firm name with AAPOR, FiveThirtyEight, Silver Bulletin, exclusion and retraction terms found nothing that fits the finding rules; the Silver Bulletin January 2026 ratings page names no banned pollsters; FiveThirtyEight pages now redirect to ABC News and could not be read; RealClearPolitics, The New York Times, Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ and VoteHub policy pages were not reviewed one by one.
  • Court records: a web search limited to CourtListener and Justia found no case naming the firm; PACER and state court dockets were not searched.