Pollster · Academic

Brown University A. Alfred Taubman Center for American Politics and Policy

Not yet researched

Polls since 2024: 0
Record vs. results, relative: D+0.1

§1Record against results

Why this matters: The one test that doesn't depend on other polls: how close a firm's final polls came to what voters did.

From FiveThirtyEight's final public data^1,2: general-election polls between a Democrat and a Republican in the last three weeks before each election, compared with the certified result. FiveThirtyEight rated each name polls were published under separately. Across all 8,957 such polls, the average miss was D+0.7, so the relative figure takes out the misses every pollster shared that year.

Error is the poll's D−R margin minus the result's; D+ means it showed Democrats doing better than they did.
Published as	Polls	Elections	Average miss	Relative to other polls	Typical size of miss	538's last rating
Brown University A. Alfred Taubman Center for American Politics and Policy	9	2000–2014	R+1.7	D+0.1	7.2 pts	Not graded (inactive)

ABC News closed FiveThirtyEight in March 2025; its data stops at the 2022 elections. 2026 results will be added once states certify them.