Pollster · Commercial firm

AtlasIntel

Research draft
Polls since 2024
43
Latest poll ended
November 1, 2026
House effect vs. other polls
D+7.5
Record vs. results, relative
R+1.9

Polls from the VoteHub polling API, used under CC BY 4.0. Each result links to the pollster's or sponsor's own release. Imported once a day; a poll VoteHub later changes keeps its earlier version on record here.

§1About

Drafted by AI from the public sources cited. Each sentence links to its source.

AtlasIntel describes itself as a developer of big data solutions for decision-making and risk management, offering public polls, political risk work and social media monitoring; its website footer names the Brazilian company AtlasIntel Tecnologia de Dados Ltda.1 Its team page lists Andrei Roman as chief executive and Thiago Costa as chief technology officer.2 Its public poll pages say its polls use its own data collection technology and post-stratification algorithms, without naming the method.1,3

Kind
Commercial firm1

§2Who it works with

Why this matters: Owners, news partners and the firms behind a poll's interviews shape what gets asked, how, and what gets published.

News partners

  • Bloomberg. AtlasIntel describes Latam Pulse as a collaborative initiative with Bloomberg that provides monthly polling on seven Latin American countries.3

Led by

  • Andrei Roman. The AtlasIntel team page lists Andrei Roman as chief executive.2

§3Whom it works for

Why this matters: A firm that also works for one party's campaigns can still publish accurate polls, but readers deserve to know.

Doesn’t say whom it works for. The AtlasIntel about and team pages do not say whether it works for candidates or parties.1,2

Of its 43 polls listed since the 2024 election, VoteHub flags 0 as paid for by a Democratic-aligned sponsor and 0 by a Republican-aligned sponsor4.

§4How its numbers compare with other polls

Why this matters: A firm whose polls run steadily to one side of everyone else's is worth reading alongside others.

Each of its polls since the 2024 election is compared with other pollsters' polls of the same question whose field period ended within 14 days, each other pollster counted once4. The figure is the average gap, with a 95% margin. This compares it with other polls, not with the truth: the others can be the ones that are off.

Party margin
D+7.5 (±2.3) across 6 polls of the generic ballot and 2026 races, in 2 contests.
Net approval: Donald Trump
−2.2 points (±2.7) across 9 polls, against other polls of the same question.
Net favorability: JD Vance
−2.9 points (±5.5) across 9 polls, against other polls of the same question.
Net favorability: Donald Trump
+0.1 points (±6.6) across 6 polls, against other polls of the same question.

D+ means its polls showed Democrats doing better than other polls did; R+, Republicans. A figure from fewer than 5 polls isn't shown.

§5Record against results

Why this matters: The one test that doesn't depend on other polls: how close a firm's final polls came to what voters did.

From FiveThirtyEight's final public data5,6: general-election polls between a Democrat and a Republican in the last three weeks before each election, compared with the certified result. FiveThirtyEight rated each name polls were published under separately. Across all 8,957 such polls, the average miss was D+0.7, so the relative figure takes out the misses every pollster shared that year.

Error is the poll's D−R margin minus the result's; D+ means it showed Democrats doing better than they did.
Published asPollsElectionsAverage missRelative to other pollsTypical size of miss538's last rating
AtlasIntel162020–2022D+0.6R+1.92.2 pts2.7 of 3

ABC News closed FiveThirtyEight in March 2025; its data stops at the 2022 elections. 2026 results will be added once states certify them.

§62026 record against the count

Why this matters: How close this pollster's last 2026 polls came to how people voted, measured the way FiveThirtyEight measured earlier elections.

2 polls of 2 races between a Democrat and a Republican, with field periods ending in the 21 days before November 3, 2026, compared with each race's count. Some of those races are still being counted, so these figures use the unofficial count and will change until states certify.

Average miss
R+6.4
Relative to other polls of the same races
D+1.3
Typical size of miss
6.4 pts

Error is the poll's D−R margin minus the count's, as shares of all votes in the race; D+ means it showed Democrats doing better than they did. From fewer than 5 polls, so read it as a few data points, not a pattern.

§7Documented findings

Why this matters: Only findings by a professional body, a court, a regulator, an aggregator's own published decision, or the pollster itself are listed, each cited to that decision.

  • Superior Electoral Court of Brazil (TSE), June 8, 2026. According to Agencia Brasil, TSE president Kassio Nunes Marques suspended publication of an AtlasIntel presidential poll in Brazil on 8 June 2026 at the request of the PL party, finding that a sequence of questions appeared to compromise methodological neutrality; AtlasIntel's lawyer called the dispute a disagreement over methodology, and the full court's review was paused on 9 June when a justice asked for more time.7
  • Regional Electoral Court of Ceara, Brazil (TRE-CE), August 7, 2024. According to O Povo, an electoral judge in Ceara barred publication of an AtlasIntel poll of the 2024 Fortaleza mayoral race at the request of the Uniao Brasil party, which argued the sample plan had errors, and set a daily fine for noncompliance; chief executive Andrei Roman said the firm used more recent population data and would contest the case.8

§8Its polls

The 46 polls of its we list, newest first.
In the fieldQuestionResultWithPaid for bySample
October 28–November 1, 2026U.S. Senate · 2026 MinnesotaPeggy Flanagan 48 · Michele Tafoya 462,133 LV
October 28–November 1, 2026U.S. Senate · 2026 North CarolinaRoy Cooper 56.4 · Michael Whatley 41.51,459 LV
May 4–May 7, 2026Generic congressional ballot · 2026Dem 54.6 · Rep 40.12,069 A
May 4–May 7, 2026Presidential primary · 2028 RepublicanMarco Rubio 45 · JD Vance 30 · Ron DeSantis 11 · Vivek Ramaswamy 1 · Greg Abbott 1 · Tim Scott 1 · 2 more— A
May 4–May 7, 2026Presidential primary · 2028 DemocraticAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez 26 · Pete Buttigieg 22 · Gavin Newsom 21 · Kamala Harris 13 · Andy Beshear 4 · Cory Booker 4 · 7 more— A
May 4–May 7, 2026Favorability · Donald TrumpUnfavorable 60 · Favorable 402,069 A
May 4–May 7, 2026Favorability · JD VanceUnfavorable 58 · Favorable 372,069 A
May 4–May 7, 2026Job approval · Donald TrumpDisapprove 59.8 · Approve 39.52,069 A
December 15–December 19, 2025Presidential primary · 2028 RepublicanJD Vance 46.7 · Marco Rubio 22.6 · Ron DeSantis 13.4 · Donald Trump Jr. 1.6 · Vivek Ramaswamy 1.5 · Greg Abbott 1 · 4 more2,315 A
December 15–December 19, 2025Favorability · Donald TrumpUnfavorable 60 · Favorable 382,315 A
December 15–December 19, 2025Job approval · Donald TrumpDisapprove 59.6 · Approve 39.32,315 A
December 15–December 19, 2025Generic congressional ballot · 2026Dem 54.4 · Rep 38.42,315 A
December 15–December 19, 2025Presidential primary · 2028 DemocraticGavin Newsom 35.4 · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 16 · Pete Buttigieg 14.5 · Kamala Harris 7.8 · Josh Shapiro 6.1 · Andy Beshear 5.8 · 7 more2,315 A
December 15–December 19, 2025Favorability · JD VanceUnfavorable 60 · Favorable 372,315 A
October 25–October 30, 2025Governor · 2025 New JerseyMikie Sherrill 50.2 · Jack Ciattarelli 49.31,639 LV
October 25–October 30, 2025Governor · 2025 VirginiaAbigail Spanberger 53.9 · Winsome Earle-Sears 45.21,325 LV
October 25–October 30, 2025Attorney general · 2025 VirginiaJason Miyares 48.1 · Jay Jones 46.61,325 LV
September 12–September 16, 2025Job approval · Donald TrumpDisapprove 52 · Approve 46.91,066 A
September 12–September 16, 2025Favorability · JD VanceUnfavorable 52 · Favorable 451,066 A
September 12–September 16, 2025Generic congressional ballot · 2026Dem 51.8 · Rep 43.51,066 A
September 12–September 16, 2025Presidential primary · 2028 DemocraticGavin Newsom 37.4 · Kamala Harris 20.5 · Pete Buttigieg 12.1 · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 10.8 · Tim Walz 3.6 · Cory Booker 2.9 · 6 more1,066 A
September 12–September 16, 2025Presidential primary · 2028 RepublicanJ.D. Vance 54.6 · Ron DeSantis 16.3 · Marco Rubio 12.2 · Vivek Ramaswamy 5.7 · Tim Scott 1.6 · Donald Trump Jr. 1.2 · 3 more1,066 A
September 12–September 16, 2025Favorability · Donald TrumpFavorable 50 · Unfavorable 501,066 A
July 13–July 18, 2025Favorability · JD VanceUnfavorable 55 · Favorable 441,935 A
July 13–July 18, 2025Job approval · Donald TrumpDisapprove 54.9 · Approve 44.31,935 A
July 13–July 18, 2025Generic congressional ballot · 2026Dem 51.3 · Rep 42.71,435 A
July 13–July 18, 2025Favorability · Donald TrumpUnfavorable 55 · Favorable 441,935 A
May 21–May 27, 2025Generic congressional ballot · 2026Dem 50.9 · Rep 41.73,469 RV
May 21–May 27, 2025Presidential primary · 2028 DemocraticPete Buttigieg 31.5 · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 19.4 · Kamala Harris 16.6 · Cory Booker 10.4 · Gavin Newsom 7.1 · Josh Shapiro 4.8 · 8 more— A
May 21–May 27, 2025Favorability · JD VanceUnfavorable 56 · Favorable 423,469 A
May 21–May 27, 2025Job approval · Donald TrumpDisapprove 54.5 · Approve 44.53,469 RV
April 10–April 14, 2025Presidential primary · 2028 DemocraticPete Buttigieg 27.7 · Kamala Harris 24.1 · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 15.9 · Cory Booker 8.7 · Gretchen Whitmer 8.6 · Gavin Newsom 6.8 · 3 more— A
April 10–April 14, 2025Job approval · Donald TrumpDisapprove 52.4 · Approve 46.12,347 A
April 10–April 14, 2025Presidential primary · 2028 RepublicanJ.D. Vance 59.8 · Ron DeSantis 8.8 · Marco Rubio 8.6 · Kristi Noem 8 · Tucker Carlson 4.6 · Glenn Youngkin 3.4 · 1 more— A
April 10–April 14, 2025Favorability · Donald TrumpUnfavorable 54 · Favorable 462,347 A
April 10–April 14, 2025Favorability · JD VanceUnfavorable 54 · Favorable 452,347 A
March 7–March 12, 2025Favorability · Donald TrumpFavorable 51 · Unfavorable 492,550 A
March 7–March 12, 2025Favorability · JD VanceFavorable 51 · Unfavorable 492,550 A
March 7–March 12, 2025Job approval · Donald TrumpDisapprove 52.4 · Approve 47.32,550 A
February 24–February 27, 2025Job approval · Donald TrumpApprove 50.3 · Disapprove 49.72,849 A
February 24–February 27, 2025Favorability · JD VanceFavorable 51 · Unfavorable 482,849 A
January 21–January 23, 2025Favorability · JD VanceFavorable 49 · Unfavorable 491,882 A
January 21–January 23, 2025Job approval · Donald TrumpApprove 50.1 · Disapprove 49.71,882 A
October 12–October 17, 2024Favorability · JD VanceFavorable 47 · Unfavorable 474,180 LV
September 11–September 12, 2024Favorability · JD VanceUnfavorable 49 · Favorable 361,775 LV
July 23–July 25, 2024Favorability · JD VanceUnfavorable 42 · Favorable 291,980 RV

§9What we looked for and didn't find

  • No founding year or headquarters was found on its website.
  • No ownership or investor information was found.
  • The TSE's own news page returned HTTP 403, so the June 2026 suspension is cited to Agencia Brasil; no final ruling by the full court was found, and the outcome of the 2024 Ceara case was not found.
  • A further PL challenge to another AtlasIntel poll in July 2026 and a reported August 2026 suspension in Pernambuco were seen only in news search results and are left as pointers.
  • No standing US news partners or US clients were found; its US polls in our data list no sponsor.
  • No fieldwork or panel vendors are named.
  • Searches found no AAPOR statement, US court or regulator action, aggregator statement about excluding or reweighting its polls, or retraction by the firm.